Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 19.033676 20.597358 22.277928 24.226763 26.435011 28.872003 31.782111
2025-09-07 16.341182 18.459433 20.887294 23.908154 27.612351 32.069221 37.936992
2025-09-14 14.548047 16.975451 19.898881 23.747298 28.788014 35.330329 44.760654
2025-09-21 13.163318 15.749265 18.986947 23.447924 29.623108 38.186358 51.603385
2025-09-28 12.528492 15.349271 19.014951 24.297799 32.033931 43.540627 63.327112
2025-10-05 11.668454 14.548011 18.395609 24.134562 32.919277 46.755348 72.526751
2025-10-12 10.979982 13.900493 17.899667 24.051889 33.861347 50.175490 83.079636
2025-10-19 10.503945 13.494663 17.688496 24.340053 35.392168 54.846641 97.655606
2025-10-26 9.968667 12.957982 17.230741 24.178592 36.127477 58.213288 110.786134
2025-11-02 9.474841 12.442241 16.755230 23.925434 36.646652 61.250749 124.459876
2025-11-09 9.096392 12.066746 16.456783 23.920383 37.593730 65.338495 142.897074
2025-11-16 8.705357 11.646326 16.054570 23.693661 38.083312 68.554319 160.709449
2025-11-23 8.342489 11.254079 15.679313 23.495340 38.639168 72.159534 182.599232
2025-11-30 8.008247 10.887299 15.320412 23.292978 39.164837 75.865510 208.003191
2025-12-07 7.720039 10.575316 15.028371 23.181519 39.862542 80.214340 240.229272
2025-12-14 7.424476 10.235979 14.668741 22.910673 40.180064 83.672985 272.571427
2025-12-21 7.353507 10.245144 14.886522 23.740201 43.055376 95.247223 364.219653
2025-12-28 7.114371 9.972526 14.608264 23.585850 43.652115 100.292927 427.799377
2026-01-04 6.904867 9.737471 14.379715 23.507370 44.418960 106.196972 512.454038
2026-01-11 6.766800 9.611737 14.332549 23.786664 46.113059 115.980776 664.550776
2026-01-18 6.570078 9.380101 14.084471 23.630797 46.679130 121.990254 806.002705
2026-01-25 6.372267 9.138325 13.805139 23.386066 46.978820 127.169254 968.451138
2026-02-01 6.221002 8.968127 13.645459 23.381228 47.929149 135.508187 1251.772720